From the book organisational-abilities
How you deliver, and how you measure progress depends on the level of complexity of the domain you’re working in. Like the well known saying; “Horses for courses” - you need to assess the approach depending on the situation.
In their paper “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making” David Snowden and Mary Boone introduce Cynefin[1] and the five contexts; simple, complicated, complex, chaotic and disorder. For the purposes of this book, we’re interested in the contrast between the simple, the complicated and the complex in guiding our decisions on delivery.
The Simple context is stable and predictable. This is the domain of best practice - we know what works and generally there’s one clear way of doing it. Leaders should assess the facts of the situation, categorise the work and identify the best practice that fits. An off the shelf delivery plan can be followed with accuracy.
The Complicated context is the “domain of experts”. Here there tend to be multiple right answers. The cause and effect relationship is clear but not to everyone, which is why this domain has specialists who may advise on differing good practice. For this reason after assessing facts, analysis is needed in order to find a solution. A good way to picture the complicated context is as a machine. A driver may notice a problem, but it would take a mechanic to diagnose it. Although not straightforward for the average driver, there are manuals documenting every inch of the car and the mechanic should be able to take it apart and put it back together. In delivery, with the right expertise complicated work follows a plan, but the more components there are, the greater need there is for regular integration to ensure the end result will work.
The Complex context is “emergent”. There are no known answers. We need to probe - run some experiments - try some approaches, sense the impact these have made, and respond based on what we’ve learned. It requires patience and toleration of failure so that the right approach emerges, which leads to the results. For the contrast between complex and complicated, view the complex as more like an ecosystem. Changes in climate or the removal of one part of an ecosystem can have big, hard to predict knock on effects. We’ll see that more often organisations are situated in the complex context. A plan to take us to the outcome cannot exist in this context as by definition, the right way will need to be discovered with a test and learn approach.
The contexts border upon each other, and problems occur when a mis-categorisation leads to the wrong approach. An expert may apply their good practice on a complex context that requires a more iterative, trial and error process. This can lead to massive waste and failure to achieve the goal. We cannot accurately predict the result of our actions when dealing with the Complex, which is why we must test and learn. The Agile and Business consultancy industry is full of well meaning individuals with “man with a hammer syndrome”[2] when the same solution (usually an off the shelf scaling framework) is applied to every problem.
[1] Snowden, D. J., and M.E. Boone. ‘A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making’. Harvard Business Review 85, no. 11 (2007): 68–76.
[2] “..it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.” - Abraham Maslow in The Psychology of Science: A Reconnaissance (1966)